Blow the Man Down

Like most people who live down here in Florida I keep an eye on the weather a lot this time of year. After 2004 and 2005 (when I was living on the Gulf Coast in the Florida panhandle) diligence of preparation became much more of a focal point. Fortunately, like Alabama and Mississippi and unlike Louisiana, Florida had a Governor who was on top of everything that was happening - including preparations by local government officials. This certainly ameliorated the confusion in the aftermath of the storms. We did not sustain near the damage from the storms that hit us that Mississippi and Louisiana had from Katrina, but because we had been constantly told we had to be prepared to look out for ourselves for a minimum of three days (and more likely seven) before we could expect help from the state or federal government we weathered (no pun intended) things pretty well. But really that whole discussion is for another day.

What I wanted to talk about instead was the complete absence of hurricanes making US landfall last year and the projections for this year. Of course the "Global Warmers" predictions were extremely dire. Obviously everyone with any intelligence knew that the man-made global warming was raising the temperature of the waters and we were going to get hammered for years to come. Sure they had "experts" who supported their viewpoint and so did their predictions for the hurricane season (no big surprise there). However the guy from Ft. Collins Colorado (in his late seventies now but is still a professor emeritus at CSU) who has the best track record at predicting hurricane frequency and strength over the last 20 years was never cited. Why not? Well because his predictions were much less dire and did not factor in "global warming". Instead he used his years of experience at reading past data and current conditions and weather patterns to formulate his forecasts.

So of course the appropriate stuff has been done since I moved to the Atlantic coast. Accordion shutters have been installed on all the windows. panels have been set up for the openings that the accordions couldn't fit, the garage door was reinforced (actually the most susceptible place), and I devised a system to utilize some lag bolts and receptacles to reinforce the front door. Everything is up to Miami Dade specs (which are the most stringent in the nation). Get a break on the insurance premium as a bonus. So all the due diligence has been done because that is the prudent thing to do.

Now I am curious to see how many storms will show up this year. The NOAA has already reduced its prediction for the number of named storms, major storms, and the number that will make landfall. So far it has been very quiet with only two storms that got strong enough (tropical storm strength with constant winds of at least 39 mph) to be named. True the season usually doesn't get into it's most active period until mid-august and we are just about there so we will have to see what happens. But if we should have another "quiet" year I am curious to see how the "glowarms" will deal with it. The were pretty silent last year - playing down the lack of storms, but with two years in a row (if it happens) of few storms I will not be surprised to see the theories start flying as to how global warming is actually responsible for the "lack" of storms. In fact I think the "glowarms" will be spinning faster than the winds around the eye of a Category Five hurricane.

Anyway - if you look at the what happens with natural disasters (especially tornadoes, hurricanes, floods, and naturally occurring forest fires) it is just the earth renewing itself - getting rid of the old to make way for the new. The only reason we do not appreciate this for the most part is that we live in places where we can be adversely affected by them. Such is the process of living.

So I will be keeping my eye on the Caribbean and the West Coast of Africa to see what develops. Because that is the prudent thing to do. And I will be listening to see what the "glowarms" say. That's better than almost any entertainment around.

By the way - I am not saying the earth is not warmer right now than it has been in the last few decades. Not even saying that man has not contributed but I am saying that we have gone overboard on what little info we have so far and might be in the position to do so real damage by acting crazily on it. But that is a subject for a different day.

And a couple of interesting things.................

Hurricane first entered English around 1555, coming from Arawakan (natives of the West Indies) hurakan via Spanish huracan.

The best site I have found to track these storms is at www.boatus.com

Later.

Dane